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Strong GDP growth driven by banking sector investment despite global headwinds - NBG Governor

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“Georgia’s economy expanded by an average of 7.4 per cent over the first nine months of 2026,” National Bank of Georgia (NBG) Governor Natia Turnava announced on Monday.

Presenting the draft Main Directions of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for 2027–2029 to Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee, Turnava emphasised the healthy structural makeup of this growth, propelled by high-productivity and relatively low-import sectors.

Turnava highlighted information and communications, transport, and financial activities as key drivers, singling out the banking sector as the single largest contributor to capital investment.

Such structural composition expands the nation’s productive capacity and helps neutralise inflationary pressures stemming from robust aggregate demand, the central bank chief noted.

Under the NBG’s updated baseline forecast, Georgia’s GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent for 2026, before gradually moderating toward its long-term sustainable rate of 5.5 per cent in 2027.

These structural shifts have also fortified Georgia’s external position. Georgia’s current account deficit shrank to a record low of 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 before narrowing further to 2.5 per cent in H1 2026, buoyed by solid trade in goods and services.

The strengthening external balance has helped anchor currency stability. By September 2026, the real effective exchange rate (REER) had appreciated by 4 per cent year-on-year, mitigating imported inflationary pressures amid elevated global price volatility.

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Ani Liparteliani Author

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image NBG President meets IMF mission

10.11.2026.20:48

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has begun its working visit to Georgia. The mission members, led by Alejandro Hajdenberg, met with Natia Turnava, President of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG).

According to the NBG, during the meeting, the parties discussed Georgia’s economic development trends, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, the state of the external sector, and financial sector stability. Particular attention was paid to the global economic environment and the impact of geopolitical developments on the Georgian economy.

Natia Turnava briefed the mission members on the country’s macroeconomic situation and key economic indicators. She highlighted the growth in international reserves, which have reached a historic high of USD 8.25 billion. The positive dynamics in the external sector were also discussed. In 2025, the current account deficit declined to a historic low of 2.9% of GDP, while in the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data, it stood at 2.5% of GDP.

Natia Turnava also reviewed the latest inflation trends. She noted that annual inflation stood at 5.9% in October 2026. The increase in inflation is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly higher energy prices, which continue to make a significant contribution to inflation. The NBG maintains a tight monetary policy stance and stands ready to take appropriate action, if necessary, in light of inflationary risks.

The macroeconomic situation in Georgia, the country’s fiscal and monetary policies, and economic development prospects will be assessed as part of the IMF mission.

NBG Vice Presidents Ekaterine Mikabadze and Nino Jeladze, Executive Director Beka Dotchviri, IMF Resident Representative in Georgia Andrew Jewell, and heads of departments of the NBG attended the meeting.

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